Incident response has changed over the last few years. AI began replacing human analysts rather than augmenting or working alongside them (decidedly ill-advised, at least for now), cloud forensics went from niche to normal, and ransomware operations continued to become disturbingly professional. Security teams learned painful lessons about coordination, preparedness, and the value of having a tested plan rather than a dusty PDF.

Next year, DFIR will mature further. Organisations will move from reactive firefighting toward structured readiness and resilience. The focus will shift from responding well to preventing chaos in the first place. From real-world consulting work and engagements with clients preparing for, or recovering from, serious incidents, here are our 10 predictions for the next 12 months.

1. Incident Response Shifts from “Call Us When It’s Burning” to Readiness Roadmaps

The days of calling a digital forensics firm only once the damage is done are fading. More organisations are treating IR as the lifecycle it is rather than an emergency service. Retainer models are evolving from on-call contracts into readiness programmes: regular reviews, playbook updates, tabletop exercises, and continuous tuning.

2. AI-Assisted Triage and Timeline Reconstruction Become Standard

AI-driven tools are getting better at reconstructing complex incident timelines from terabytes of logs, emails, and disk images in minutes, but the differentiator isn’t the AI itself; it’s the human who can interpret, validate, and communicate what those timelines mean. Expert-in-the-loop is going to be around for much longer than most people imagine. It’s not yet possible to replace the expertise of an experienced DFIR professional.

3. SOCs Measured on Quality of Escalation, Not Alert Volume

The “more alerts == better security” mindset is dying. Organisations are realising that efficiency in detection and escalation is a better metric than sheer activity. Mature SOCs will focus on precision: fewer, higher-confidence alerts with faster validation and escalation into structured response playbooks.

4. IR Maturity Becomes a Board-Level Metric

Boards and executives are now asking for concrete evidence of readiness: tested IR plans, rehearsed scenarios, and maturity scores. Cyber security will continue its shift from a technical to a governance domain, with IR metrics joining safety and continuity in board packs.

5. IR Plans and Playbooks Tested Quarterly, Not Annually

The annual tabletop is no longer enough. The pace of change in cloud configurations, team structure, and threat landscape means that IR plans age quickly. Forward-leaning organisations are now running focused, quarterly exercises to validate specific playbooks or crisis communication flows.

6. OT-Aware DFIR in Critical Demand: Talent Gap Persists

Operational technology (OT) environments remain one of the hardest domains for DFIR. The need for analysts who understand both industrial protocols and forensic process is far outstripping supply. As industrial control systems become more connected, this skill gap becomes both a business risk and a safety concern.

7. Identity Hygiene Failures Overtake Zero-Days as Breach Causes

Compromised credentials and poor identity management will continue to outpace sophisticated exploits. Multi-factor fatigue, over-privileged accounts, and incomplete offboarding remain leading causes of compromise. Attackers exploit predictable human and administrative weaknesses more than technical vulnerabilities.

8. Cloud DFIR Maturity Accelerates: IAM and Log Retention Mastery Define Leaders

Cloud investigations are finally catching up with reality. The gap between cloud operations and forensic readiness is closing as teams learn to configure logging, centralise evidence, and automate data preservation. The differentiator will be those who design for investigation from day one.

9. Cyber Insurance Requires Exercised IR Plans for Coverage

As more actuarial data becomes available, insurers are tightening underwriting standards. Many cyber insurance policies will require not only an incident response plan but documented evidence of recent testing and staff participation. This shift mirrors safety compliance regimes in other high-risk, high-consequence sectors.

10. The Calm, Well-Rehearsed Teams Outperform the Most Technical

When incidents occur, calm beats clever. The teams that consistently perform best in crises are not those with the deepest technical knowledge, but those with structure, communication discipline, and effective leadership under pressure. Practice, not panic, defines outcomes.

The overarching shift is from response to readiness. DFIR is now about resilience, leadership, and preparation, not just technical capability. Organisations that treat incident response as an ongoing capability — tested, refined, and integrated into business operations — will weather whatever 2026 brings.

Start small: review your plan, test it quarterly, and treat every exercise as an opportunity to strengthen your team. Readiness isn’t a project; it’s a habit.